ENENERGY COSTS, TRANSPORTATION & OPERATING RISK · OCTOBER 7, 2026
EIA Raises Fuel Forecasts and Flags Tight East Coast Distillate Inventories
EIA’s October outlook projects 2026 retail diesel at $5.19 per gallon, notes East Coast distillate inventories 32% below their five-year seasonal average in September, and forecasts higher national wholesale electricity prices.
What EIA released on October 6
Source publication date: October 6, 2026. The U.S. Energy Information Administration published its October Short-Term Energy Outlook using model inputs finalized October 1. EIA forecasts 2026 retail diesel averaging $5.19 per gallon and gasoline averaging $3.91 per gallon. The outlook is a national forecast with stated assumptions, not a quote for a borrower, supplier, route, utility territory, or hedging transaction.
- 01East Coast inventories were 32% below average
- 022026 wholesale power forecast is $52/MWh
- 03Forecast inputs were finalized October 1
Fuel markets remain exposed to inventory and geopolitical risk
EIA reported September retail averages of $6.29 per gallon for diesel and $4.35 for gasoline after sharp increases. East Coast distillate inventories were 32% below their five-year seasonal average in September; the agency forecasts recovery but expects inventories to remain around 20% below the 2021–2025 average through the winter. It also raised its fourth-quarter Brent forecast to $105 per barrel.
Electricity costs vary sharply by region
EIA forecasts U.S. wholesale electricity prices averaging $52 per megawatt hour in 2026, 11% higher than in 2025. Its outlook shows a 41% increase for the PJM region and a 23% decline for Northwest Mid-Columbia. Wholesale forecasts do not translate directly into a specific business's retail bill because utilities, contracts, demand charges, taxes, hedges, location, and usage patterns differ.
Practical borrower takeaway
Update the budget with actual gallons, miles, idle time, fuel economy, delivery lanes, utility usage, rate schedules, surcharges, customer pass-through timing, and hedging or purchasing terms. Run monthly cases for higher diesel, temporary supply disruption, delayed surcharge recovery, and regional electricity increases. Tie any working-capital or equipment request to documented cost savings, utilization, margin protection, and adequate liquidity; revisit the model as EIA assumptions and market conditions change.
Fuel- and energy-intensive borrowers should refresh monthly cost, surcharge, route, inventory, margin, and liquidity assumptions and stress-test regional supply disruptions rather than relying on a single annual average.
Discuss a financing need →This independent summary is based on the cited source and is provided for general educational purposes only. Terms and program requirements may change.