ENMONETARY POLICY, LABOR MARKETS & BORROWING COSTS · NOVEMBER 12, 2026
Fed Governor Sees Strong Growth but a Low-Hire, Low-Fire Labor Market
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller described solid economic growth and stable employment alongside persistent inflation and unusually low hiring and separation rates, while arguing that further policy tightening may be needed.
What Governor Waller said on November 10
Source publication date: November 10, 2026. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller said the U.S. economy was growing strongly, the labor market was near its long-term employment rate, and inflation remained too high. He supported holding the policy rate at the October meeting but argued that further tightening would likely be needed. The remarks express one policymaker’s view and do not constitute an FOMC decision, a commitment, or a commercial-loan quote.
- 01Growth remained solid
- 02Hiring and separations were low
- 03Policy tightening remained possible
The labor market was stable but less dynamic
Waller cited October unemployment of 4.1% and payroll growth of 165,000, while noting that six- and twelve-month average payroll gains were closer to 80,000 per month. He characterized the market as low hire, low fire: both hiring and separations remained unusually low. He raised questions about whether weaker labor mobility could affect productivity, real wages, youth employment, and longer unemployment spells even when the headline unemployment rate appears stable.
Rate expectations remained conditional
The speech was delivered before the October CPI release later that day. Waller said he was leaning toward a 25-basis-point increase at the December meeting under his expected inflation case and would consider a larger move if inflation were substantially higher. Subsequent data, other policymakers, and the formal FOMC decision process can change the outcome. Commercial pricing may also reflect Treasury yields, SOFR, Prime, lender funding, spreads, floors, structure, and credit risk.
Practical borrower takeaway
Re-run the financing model under unchanged, 25-basis-point-higher, and more adverse rate cases. Test revenue, payroll, recruiting time, wage pressure, customer demand, covenant headroom, and refinance proceeds. Compare fixed and floating structures, caps, floors, amortization, maturity, prepayment, and deposit requirements across written proposals. Keep liquidity for a slower hiring cycle or tighter policy path instead of relying on one forecast to make the transaction work.
Borrowers should not base a financing plan on one expected rate move; model higher benchmarks, slower hiring, wage pressure, and weaker demand while preserving liquidity and covenant headroom.
Discuss a financing need →This independent summary is based on the cited source and is provided for general educational purposes only. Terms and program requirements may change.