CONSUMER DEMAND & BUSINESS PLANNING · SEPTEMBER 13, 2026
Consumer Sentiment Falls as Inflation Expectations Increase
The University of Michigan's preliminary September survey shows consumer sentiment declining to 47.8, while year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.6% and long-run expectations edged up to 3.4%.
What the September 11 preliminary results show
Source publication date: September 11, 2026. The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment registered 47.8 in preliminary September results, down 7.5% from 51.7 in August and 13.2% from September 2025. The current-conditions index was 50.9, while the expectations index fell to 45.8, an 11.1% monthly decline.
- 01Down 7.5% from August
- 02Expectations index fell 11.1%
- 03Year-ahead inflation view rose to 4.6%
Inflation expectations moved higher
The survey reported year-ahead inflation expectations rising to 4.6% from 4.0% in August, the highest reading since June. Long-run inflation expectations increased to 3.4% after three months at 3.3%. Survey director Joanne Hsu said expectations for personal finances and business conditions weakened as consumers anticipated added pressure from fuel prices and trade tensions. Final September results are scheduled for September 25 and may revise the preliminary picture.
How sentiment can enter commercial underwriting
Sentiment can provide context for restaurants, retailers, personal services, leisure, automotive, and other consumer-facing businesses, but it does not measure a particular company's orders or collections. Lenders may compare projected sales with transaction counts, average ticket, repeat-customer behavior, backlog, cancellations, promotions, gross margin, inventory turns, and bank deposits. A business can outperform a weak national reading—or remain vulnerable despite a stronger one.
Practical borrower takeaway
Refresh the forecast with recent weekly or monthly operating evidence and separate price, volume, and customer-mix assumptions. Model a case with fewer transactions, slower collections, or delayed price increases while fuel, freight, or labor costs remain elevated. Show the actions management can take, the timing of those actions, and the liquidity available before assuming new debt service. Treat the survey as context, not proof of demand or loan availability.
Consumer-facing borrowers should test revenue, ticket size, margins, and working-capital needs against their own current transactions and a softer-demand scenario rather than using a national sentiment index as a sales forecast.
Discuss a financing need →This independent summary is based on the cited source and is provided for general educational purposes only. Terms and program requirements may change.