ENSMALL BUSINESS TECHNOLOGY & GROWTH · OCTOBER 13, 2026
AI-Using Small Businesses Report Stronger Growth Expectations
New York Fed researchers using the 2025 Small Business Credit Survey found that employer firms using AI were more optimistic about employment and revenue growth than non-users, even after accounting for firm and owner characteristics.
What the October 8 research reports
Source publication date: October 8, 2026. New York Fed researchers analyzed the AI module in the 2025 Small Business Credit Survey, fielded from September through November 2025. Among firms with at least one employee, 46% reported that the business or employees were using AI tools and another 15% planned adoption within twelve months. The authors' views do not necessarily represent the New York Fed or Federal Reserve System.
- 0115% planned adoption
- 02AI users expected more hiring
- 03Expected growth is not realized cash flow
AI users reported stronger employment expectations
Among employer firms, AI users had a 33-percentage-point net expectation of higher employment over the following twelve months, compared with 15 points for non-users. After controlling for owner and firm characteristics, location, and prior employment changes, the gap remained positive at 10 percentage points. This is an association in survey expectations, not proof that AI caused future hiring or that projected employment occurred.
Revenue expectations were also more optimistic
For current AI users, the share expecting revenue to increase exceeded the share expecting a decrease by 48 percentage points, versus 21 points among non-users. After controls and prior revenue changes, AI users retained a 14-percentage-point advantage. Yet only 31% of respondents reported that AI had already increased sales, and 77% reported no current labor-cost change attributable to AI.
Practical borrower takeaway
Document the business problem, selected tool, implementation cost, data and cybersecurity controls, responsible staff, vendor terms, training, workflow change, and expected timing. Build projections that separate already realized results from management expectations and include a delayed or unsuccessful implementation case. Support any revenue lift, margin improvement, or staffing change with operating metrics, contracts, pilot results, and current financial statements before using it to size debt.
Borrowers should turn AI plans into measurable operating assumptions—cost, implementation, workflow, staffing, revenue, controls, and timing—and avoid treating survey optimism as realized cash flow.
Discuss a financing need →This independent summary is based on the cited source and is provided for general educational purposes only. Terms and program requirements may change.